Does Hormuz Offer Iran Leverage on the Nuclear Issue?
Last week, the Saudi reformist daily Al-Watan featured an article criticizing Iran’s recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as ’suicide’. The threat was reportedly voiced by Muhammad Ali Jaafari, the head of Iran’s Republican Guard Corps (RGC), after the US warned Iran to respond in a positive manner to an ultimatum on an incentives package offered by global powers to freeze its nuclear program. Jaafari’s statement has subsequently been highly criticized by representatives from the Arab GCC states (i.e. Kuwait), and, apparently, by media outlets in that region such as Al-Watan.
Since 40 percent of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz, it’s blockage would likely send oil prices soaring. Subsequently, the article argues that, while Iran claims that it has the ability to easily shutdown the strait, such a move would be foolish since it would unite the international community against it. The author even goes on to describe the statement as the hangman’s ‘rope’ around Iran’s neck.
The negative response to Iranian threats to blockade the strait leads one to ponder whether it will prove to be an asset or a liability for Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran closes down the strait, GCC-member states may be compelled to advocate for US military action against Iran. Ironically, while the GCC has previously used the ‘oil weapon’ to economically weaken Iran, the council’s dependency on oil power itself might force it to plea for US military intervention in the event that Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
The northern half of the Strait of Hormoz is sovereign Iranian territory. under international law, Iran is only required to allow other ships to pass through so long as it does not violate Iran’s security or violate the UN Charter. Repeated threats to attack Iran constitute exactly such a threat. If Iran is attacked - in violation of internation law - it has every right to block the Straits. And every single Arab country of the Persian Gulf who provides assistance or succor the US forces would be legally a co-belligerent, and a legitimate target.
During the Iran-Iraq war, the Kuwaitis and Saudis backed Saddam and provided millions of dollars in aid, fighters, intelligence, and other forms of assistance to Saddam. And look what that got them. Here’s hoping they learned a lesson.